Research
Data-backed analysis of prediction market opportunities. Real numbers, real backtests, real signal data you can trade on.
April 5, 2026
Weather Alpha: $889K in Backtested Returns Across 40 Cities
We combined OpenMeteo forecasts with Google's GraphCast AI to find where Polymarket temperature markets disagree with the data. 258,700 trades backtested, 80.92% win rate.
April 2, 2026
Shipping Signals: Aligning Real-World Data to Prediction Markets
AIS vessel transit counts, maritime advisories, and congestion indices mapped to 198 Polymarket shipping events across 6 major chokepoints. 91.5% signal coverage.